Xue Yanxia, Liao Xinwu, Huo Chunliang, et al. Uncertainty analysis of reserves of fluvial reservoir calculated by geological model[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2018, (4): 1-5+10. DOI: 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2018.04.001.
The reserves of the geological model in the offshore fluvial reservoirs are influenced by the uncertain parameters
such as the structure
plane variogram
correlation between reservoir properties and seismic attributes
irreducible water saturation
lower limiting value of effective reservoir
volume coefficient
and oil-water interface. The root that causes these uncertain parameters is analyzed. Meanwhile
taking oilfield-Q in Bohai bay as an example
and by the integrated application of the Monte-Carlo method and stochastic modeling
the effects of the uncertainty parameters on the reserves are estimated quantitatively. The probability cumulative distribution curves of reserves and 3 probability reserve value which are the pessimistic reserves(P90)
expected reserves(P50)and optimistic reserves(P10)are obtained to predict the risk and potential of the reserves.