The property of low porosity and ultra-low permeability of shale gas reservoirs decide that only by the horizontal well fracturing can we obtain the economic productivity

and the forecast of the production after fracture have a great influence on optimal plan of treatments and economical estimation. On the basis of summarizing the previous researches

a novel model for production forecast in the unsteady early period was established based on the corrected Warren Root model and considered about the desorption

slippage and stress sensitivity of micro fractures. Then the analytical solution for pseudo pressure was obtained by Laplace transformation and well-test method. Lastly

the practical production data was used to verify the accuracy of this model

and the factors affecting production were analyzed. The conclusion showed that the computed value and actual value of average daily production for single well in shale gas reservoir were similar to each other

demonstrating the validity of the model. Desorption and slippage had noticeable effects on the production and it also revealed that desorption played an important role in gas output. However

stress sensitivity could also affect the production in some extent

but the extent of the influence was less than that of desorption and slippage. The conclusions were meaningful for the study of output mechanism of shale gas and early production forecast.